The only question is: How much of a failure?
Vancouver media hype on Elias Pettersson, including the Province's Jason Botchford and Ben Kuzma, and many announcers on the radio, including almost everyone on Sportsnet650 and almost everyone on TSN1040 have been ridiculously out of whack with reality.
Do you know who OWNS and I mean OWNS the Swedish Hockey League record for goals in a season?
Hakan Loob.
In the 1982/83 season - he scored 42 goals and 76 points and won the Golden Puck.
Peter Forsberg played in the NHL at 215 pounds. He's a Top 10 player all time in the NHL. He won the Golden Puck - twice.
Elias Pettersson, at 165 pounds (think of what he'll weight at game 60 in an NHL season), well he scored a whopping 24 goals in 44 games.
Hakan Loob - 42 goals in 44 games.
Elias Pettersson - 24 goals in 44 games.
42. 24.
To put Pettersson in even more perspective - at the World Junior Championships - Forsberg got over 45 points in his WJC days.
Pettersson got 7.
45. 7.
I've heard people, as stupid as it sounds, compare this kid to Pavel Bure.
Bure owns the single tournament record at the WJC. Bure set the Soviet League record for goals in a single season for a rookie at the age of 17. Bure bench pressed 250 pounds 20 times at his first workout for the Canucks. Even grizzled veterans of the NHL had to pick up their jaws from the ground. That's good for even the NFL.
This is Pavel Bure from a famous photo from the Vancouver Sun.
This is Elias Pettersson, photo credit from his twitter page.
Now this is not to disparage Pettersson. Virtually no one on planet Earth has the body of Pavel Bure. And in fact this old writer wishes he was back in the 185 pound range and looked more like Pettersson than his 200 pounds of today. Pettersson looks fine.
But is he a world class athlete? No.
The point is this: There's been comparisons of Pettersson to Bure - and in fact Pettersson is even MORE anticipated in the Vancouver market than Bure.
To which I reply - have you seen the photographs? Scroll back up.
One guy is clearly an athlete.
Look, I'm not saying Pettersson can't make a good go of it in the NHL eventually. It's just not going to be immediately.
I'm firmly in the camp of leaving Pettersson in Sweden for another year or two. What's he going to miss here in Vancouver anyways? They're going to be a horrific hockey team.
If he stays in Sweden he has a chance to start looking more like Bure.
And I think when he shows up for the Canucks training camp the fall he won't be staying too long. I think it's going to be quickly apparent to observers and Pettersson himself that he's not strong enough and not fast enough to compete with even the moderate amount of athletes in the Canucks dressing room.
Is Pettersson talented? Immensely. He obviously is skilled.
But that's not the game of hockey anymore.
The 1980s are long gone. The amount of skill you have has nothing to do with the success in the NHL.
See the Golden Knights.
Can you skate?
That's it. I wrote an entire book about this. Can you skate? If you can't skate - you can't play in the NHL. Period.
End of story.
Now recently on TSN1040 a member of the TSN staff observing Elias Pettersson in Denmark at the World Championships, Mike Johnston (who played in the NHL for the Toronto Maple Leafs), said Pettersson was skilled on the power play BUT
BUT
He was easily knocked to the ice.
And
AND
He wasn't a particularly fast skater. He was having trouble with the pace of the game was the quote.
So what does that mean?
It means what the scouts said about Pettersson since before his draft - he's immensely talented and he may have real difficulty putting on enough strength to play at the NHL level.
Now cast your mind's eye back to last year's development camp.
Remember when Adam Gaudette was better than Elias Pettersson? Knocked him on his keister in fact.
And how did Gaudette look at the NHL level? He was meh.
Meh.
Now cast your mind's eye back to the World Junior Championships - was Pettersson the best player there? No.
His coaches didn't even name him a Top 3 player for their team.
Is Pettersson valuable on the power play? Sure.
Can he play on the power play at the NHL? Sure.
So what are you going to do? Keep a guy on the roster who can only play on the power play?
Look, the Swedish Hockey League isn't exactly the greatest league in the world.
NHL
KHL
Swiss League
Finnish League
- That's according to Ray Ferraro. Don't have a big shit on me for saying it.
That's Ferraro. His kid plays in one of those leagues. He's seen it all. He's pretty good at his job.
Pettersson did great in the Swedish Hockey League. But that's in Sweden. It's a long long ways from a NHL level.
In the end I think it's going to be quickly apparent to everyone involved that he's not ready.
The broken thumb is going to interfere with strength training.
Notice the cast.
And let's get another thing straight.
I'm pulling for the kid.
I really am.
But there's reality that kicks in, or should kick in, for any sane observer.
What you can do on a large ice surface in Sweden with no fighting and virtually no hitting has almost no viability in the NHL.
Does Pettersson shy away from the physical play? No. He's got heart.
But heart at 160 pounds...
Oh, I know, I know. He's now at 172 pounds.
That's great.
And you know what he's going to weigh at game 40 of an NHL season? 160 pounds.
I've heard people compare him to Patrick Kane.
Can Pettersson skate like Kane? Oh hell no. Are you kidding me?
I've heard people compare him to Wayne Gretzky.
Please bitch.
Gretzky was playing in the WHA at 17.
Don't even go there. You don't go Gretzky with anyone.
Was Gretzky tall and skinny? Sure.
But if you put Gretzky at 19 in the Swedish Hockey League he would have scored 200 goals in 44 games. And you're a complete idiot and never saw Gretzky play if you don't think he could hit 200 goals in 44 games in the Swedish Hockey League as it stands today.
ARE YOU KIDDING ME?
Gretzky?
Wow.
So where can Pettersson be expected to land? Somewhere below Hakan Loob and probably above Anton Rodin.
Remember Rodin? The Swedish Hockey League MVP? He played in Vancouver. How'd that work out?
I mean you have a direct apple to apple comparison and Rodin couldn't make the AHL team.
Now, true, Rodin's knee contributed.
BUT he was 26 and 40 pounds heavier.
And it didn't work out - even though he was big enough and fast enough to compete.
Pettersson has a long uphill climb to get to the NHL.
It would be wise to just chill.
I know Canucks fans are desperate for anything right now. But that's not the guy to pin your hopes on.
He's not Forsberg. He's not a shadow of a Peter Forsberg. Please. Did you even see Forsberg play?
The vast majority of you did not see Forsberg play. He was really F__king good. A top 10 player all time in the NHL. A franchise center.
And that's another issue.
Pettersson has yet to prove anywhere that he's actually a center.
If the big plan is to put Pettersson at center at the NHL level... well, good luck with that.
Did Trevor Linden make the move from winger to center? Yes. But he had Pavel Bure.
And Linden played at 215 pounds. He was a pretty big boy. And a punishing hitter.
So what I'm saying is don't believe the hype.
Tone it down.
If he was all that and a bag of chips - he would have gone 1st overall, not projected to go 10th overall.
Nothing's changed.
He's still the same guy.
And P.S. - Cody Glass got a Stanley Cup ring.
No comments:
Post a Comment